Population issues of 2050
At present every year world population is increasing by about 76 million. In mid 2005 total world population was 6.1 billion and in 2050 it is expected to reach about 9.1 billion.
This thesis attempts to discuss main issues related to population rise till 2050 based on various data publicly available worldwide.
It is interesting to note that about 76 million people are added to the population of the world every year at the current rate. All most all growth in population in next fifty years will take place in less developed countries whereas there will be little change in population of developed nations. In fact it is projected that population will decrease in countries like Japan, Germany, Italy and East European countries. The population of nearly 50 poor countries will be double by 2050. The population pyramid as published by United Nations is shown below:
Overall population rise is directly attributable to the fact that global birth rate is more than the global death rate. Birth rate increases mainly due to increase in women’s fertility and lower infant mortality. Death rate decreases due to higher life expectancy.
If we look at the fertility issue, on the average it was 5 per woman in 1950, 2.65 in 2005 and projected to be slightly more than 2 in 2050. But if we analyze the fertility figures for developed, developing and least developed nations, it reveals interesting phenomenon. In the developed nations present average fertility rate is about 1.56 and is expected to reach 1.84 in 2050. In many developed countries the rate has gone below replacement level mostly in Southern and Eastern Europe. In the developing countries the current average rate is about 2.58 and is projected to reach 1.92 in 2050. In about 50 least developed nations, the current rate is about 5 on the average and is likely go down to 2.57 by 2050. The continually declining fertility rate suggests that family planning measures adopted by nations are working well although still lot is required to be done in least developed countries. Hence one major issue in 2050 will be to bring the world average fertility rate to level where is more or it balances the replacement level so as to achieve the zero global population growth.
Infant mortality rate is directly dependant on poverty and availability of adequate health care facilities. Though high infant mortality reduces population growth it can never be an approach to control population for obvious moral reasons. Infant mortality was not an issue in developed nations for a long time now and fortunately it is also reducing in developing and least developed world mainly due to increased availability of quality health care and general economic development.
Life expectancy is one aspect, which has increased very rapidly in last 50 years. The world average life span was about 47 years in 1955 and toady that figure is about 65. The projected world average life expectancy in 2050 is around 75. Here also in developed countries it is projected that average life span will increase to 82 years from the current figure of 76, in developing countries it will rise to 76 years from 66 at current level and in least developed countries it will go up to 66.5 years from the current level of 51. However these figures do not reveal some of the regional imbalances. There has been decrease in life expectancy and increase in mortality for example in Eastern Europe where the life expectancy in 2005 has become 66.6 which is lower than what was there in 1955. In poorest countries, effective measures to control HIV/AIDS shall contribute greatly to improve the life expectancy rate. It may be noted that life expectancy figures by 2050 are derived from statistical models. But further increase cannot be ruled out in view of the tremendous medical and technological advancement taking place at a rapid pace in today’s world. Such an extra-ordinary rise in life expectancy can snow ball into a major population issue in 2050.
One of the disturbing fallout of the simultaneously increasing life expectancy and the decreasing birth rate is population ageing. In fact world is experiencing phenomenal increase in the ratio of the number of older (above 60) persons to the number of younger persons. This is having major repercussions in economic and social lives from the standpoint of dependency load. By 2050 the number persons above 60 will cross the number persons below 15. There were 8% older persons in 1950, 10% in 2000 and is expected to go up to 21% in 2050. Population of older persons is currently going up at an approximate rate of 2% which itself is higher than the overall population growth rate. Again in developed countries, one fifth of the population is already above 60 and in 2050 it is projected to be about one third. Presently 60% of the older population lives in developed countries and the figure is expected to go up to 80% in 2050. This will have far reaching economic and social consequences in many countries since in the present system it is mainly the current working age group who supports the welfare of the aged population in general. The potential support ratio, PSR (number of persons of age 15 to 64/one person above 65) is expected to go down to about 4 from the current level of about 9. This will have huge impact on present social security measures. Hence surely in 2050 this will be a burning issue.
Population growth in some developing nations exerts force on the society to emigrate in search of better life. Easy movement of labor force due to globalization and reduction in working age population in many developed countries generates a good demand for skilled workers from other countries to sustain their advance economies. Migration is considered as an effective tool for global development. In some parts of Europe and Asia, where fertility rate is below the replacement level, migration to such countries helps to compensate for the loss of population resulting in population growth or reduction in decline in population. Many developed countries are implementing planned immigration to compensate for the fall of birth rate below the replacement level. Today about 3% of the world’s population i.e. 175 million people are migrants and the figure is projected to go up to 250 million in 2050. More immigration is taking place from less developed countries to developed countries and at present about half of them is migrating to North America. Women contribute about half of the international migrant population. The issue of internal migration is a point to consider for regional population studies within the same country. Migration due to political, social, natural and religious disturbances constitutes a small percent compared to the economic migration. Migration does bring revenue to the originating country and helps their economies. So this continuing phenomenon of migration will still remain a major issue in 2050 with its both good and bad effects.
One of the major consequences of the population growth is urbanization. Urbanization is a direct derivation of the conscious decision of people to look for better opportunities in life in the cities. In 2007 more than 50% of the world’s population will live in cities. Today 4% of the world’s population lives in only 20 mega cities. Poverty is integrally linked with rapid urbanization due to unplanned expansion of cities leading to poor living condition and inadequate health services. About one third of the world’s urban population live in slums today. By 2030 about 1.7 billion people will live in slums of urban areas as projected. By 2050 the pressure on urban zones is expected to increase manifolds and will be another pressing issue.
The demographic transition explicates the transition from high birth and high death rates to low birth and low death rates. In developed nations the transition started in the eighteenth century whereas in developing world it started much later. The model uses birth and death rates per thousand as indices. For example presently birth rate and death rate of US is 14 and 9 respectively whereas the corresponding figures for Kenya is 32 and 14. Although it differs from analyst to analyst, for our understanding we can consider that it is divided into 4 stages. Stage I is when both birth rate and death rates are high. In this stage birth rate is high because more children are needed to ensure survival by working in farm etc. and more birth rate is due to lack health care facilities. In stage II where death rate goes down owing to better hygiene but birth rate remains almost same resulting in a rise in population. Many poor countries are in now stage II. In stage III, the birth rate reduces because of improved family planning, improved education, reduction in infant mortality rate, more industrialized lives etc. and the death rate remains low as well. Here also the population increases but the rate is much less compared to stage II. China, South Korea, Singapore etc. are now close to Stage III and approaching US and West Europe. Stage IV is where birth and death rates are almost equal leading to stagnant population like Switzerland. A possible Stage V is where the birth rate is lower than the death rate leading to net decrease in population like in Sweden. In some models stage II and IV are combined into one.
The method of population control in the developing countries is a central issue today. With the economic development of the nations the population growth rate declines as a natural consequence. Since such development process is slow in developing nations with huge populations, it may become necessary to accelerate the measures, which can reduce the population growth rate. Two different established models have recently been applied with reasonable success, one in China and the other in India. The model that China followed was the application of coercive policy of ‘one child per couple’. The general complaint against them was that China used force and economic sanctions against its own citizens to enforce the policy. On the other hand in a highly educated state of Kerala in India they took a collaborative approach that relied on conscious decisions by women and men given the varied choices, security and opportunity for open discussions. Although China has achieved average fertility rate of 2 in comparison to India’s average of 3.6 at present, it should be noted that Indian model of Kerala was applied in only one state with higher education level where the success rate is even better than China. Since India is a diversified country with average education level in general much lower than China, the Kerala model could not be extended throughout the country. However success of Kerala model is an eye opener for those who vouch for Chinese model of compulsory birth control. At least one adverse impact of Chinese model was its inability to reduce infant mortality to the level what could have achieved in Kerala. The infant mortality in Kerala is 16.5 per 1000 (17 for boys and 16 for girls) in comparison with the figure of 31 (28 for boys and 33 for girls) in case of China. This has helped Kerala to maintain a better ratio of male to female than China. Hence for developing nations Kerala model should be the choice, although more active intervention of Government like they did in China cannot also be ruled out in selected cases where situation demands quick results.
Growth in population is the major reason for the rampant extinction of the plant and animals, which is bringing instability in ecological balance by destroying bio-diversity. Urban migration is exerting tremendous pressure on water distribution and sanitation systems and forcing a major part of the population to live in unhealthy conditions. Reserve of sweet water is fast depleting in many developing countries due to its misuse and pressure of growing population. Vast forestland is being destroyed to accommodate additional people which in turn destroying wildlife and giving rise to greenhouse gasses and global warming. Although advanced countries are traditionally responsible for generating most of the green house gasses, developing nations are also coming up fast in the pursuit of the rapid development. It is projected that the developing countries will be generating more green house gasses by 2020 than developed nations. By the year 2050 adverse effect on eco system may increase by 3 to 4 times considering the population growth, continuing natural resource use and technological advancements. Unquestionably the issue of environmental degradation and protection will be a burning issue of 2050.
HIV/AIDS epidemic has an adverse effect on life expectancy and population growth. This is particularly true for developing and poorer countries of Africa. In fact life expectancy has declined from 62 of 1990 to 48 in Sub-Saharan Africa in last 10 years. It is projected that in this zone population growth will decelerate in next 15 years only because of HIV AIDS. Many other developing countries population affected by AIDS/HIV will continue to swell but the high fertility rate will compensate the loss of population. Even in 9 most affected countries in Africa, it is projected that population will rise from 115 million in 2000 to 196 million in 2050. Trend in medical advancement gives rise to the hope that HIV/AIDS will be cornered in foreseeable future to take this challenge out of the list of major issues in 2050.
The author summarizes the main points and opposition to main points as below:
1) In 2050 the world as a whole will see poorer standard of living on the average and more environmental degradation due to increase in population. Its opposition is that world community will become more responsible to protect the environment to the extent required and standard of living will improve because of continuing technological and medical advancements.
2) Whatever acceleration in poverty and hunger will be generated is due to the rise in population. The counter argument is that it is and will be more due to deliberate acts of richer nation’s policies of inequitable distribution of wealth to protect their richness.
3) The collaborative approach of India’s Kerala model for population control in developing countries is best suited from the social standpoint. The opposition to this view is to that the application of coercive polices by active legal and governmental intervention gives much quicker and assured results.
As concluding remark it can be said that if challenges related to the issue of population growth losses its top priority with every nation on the earth and all applicable international forums, the big question of the possibility of extinction of human race will be more relevant in 2050.
This thesis attempts to discuss main issues related to population rise till 2050 based on various data publicly available worldwide.
It is interesting to note that about 76 million people are added to the population of the world every year at the current rate. All most all growth in population in next fifty years will take place in less developed countries whereas there will be little change in population of developed nations. In fact it is projected that population will decrease in countries like Japan, Germany, Italy and East European countries. The population of nearly 50 poor countries will be double by 2050. The population pyramid as published by United Nations is shown below:
Overall population rise is directly attributable to the fact that global birth rate is more than the global death rate. Birth rate increases mainly due to increase in women’s fertility and lower infant mortality. Death rate decreases due to higher life expectancy.
If we look at the fertility issue, on the average it was 5 per woman in 1950, 2.65 in 2005 and projected to be slightly more than 2 in 2050. But if we analyze the fertility figures for developed, developing and least developed nations, it reveals interesting phenomenon. In the developed nations present average fertility rate is about 1.56 and is expected to reach 1.84 in 2050. In many developed countries the rate has gone below replacement level mostly in Southern and Eastern Europe. In the developing countries the current average rate is about 2.58 and is projected to reach 1.92 in 2050. In about 50 least developed nations, the current rate is about 5 on the average and is likely go down to 2.57 by 2050. The continually declining fertility rate suggests that family planning measures adopted by nations are working well although still lot is required to be done in least developed countries. Hence one major issue in 2050 will be to bring the world average fertility rate to level where is more or it balances the replacement level so as to achieve the zero global population growth.
Infant mortality rate is directly dependant on poverty and availability of adequate health care facilities. Though high infant mortality reduces population growth it can never be an approach to control population for obvious moral reasons. Infant mortality was not an issue in developed nations for a long time now and fortunately it is also reducing in developing and least developed world mainly due to increased availability of quality health care and general economic development.
Life expectancy is one aspect, which has increased very rapidly in last 50 years. The world average life span was about 47 years in 1955 and toady that figure is about 65. The projected world average life expectancy in 2050 is around 75. Here also in developed countries it is projected that average life span will increase to 82 years from the current figure of 76, in developing countries it will rise to 76 years from 66 at current level and in least developed countries it will go up to 66.5 years from the current level of 51. However these figures do not reveal some of the regional imbalances. There has been decrease in life expectancy and increase in mortality for example in Eastern Europe where the life expectancy in 2005 has become 66.6 which is lower than what was there in 1955. In poorest countries, effective measures to control HIV/AIDS shall contribute greatly to improve the life expectancy rate. It may be noted that life expectancy figures by 2050 are derived from statistical models. But further increase cannot be ruled out in view of the tremendous medical and technological advancement taking place at a rapid pace in today’s world. Such an extra-ordinary rise in life expectancy can snow ball into a major population issue in 2050.
One of the disturbing fallout of the simultaneously increasing life expectancy and the decreasing birth rate is population ageing. In fact world is experiencing phenomenal increase in the ratio of the number of older (above 60) persons to the number of younger persons. This is having major repercussions in economic and social lives from the standpoint of dependency load. By 2050 the number persons above 60 will cross the number persons below 15. There were 8% older persons in 1950, 10% in 2000 and is expected to go up to 21% in 2050. Population of older persons is currently going up at an approximate rate of 2% which itself is higher than the overall population growth rate. Again in developed countries, one fifth of the population is already above 60 and in 2050 it is projected to be about one third. Presently 60% of the older population lives in developed countries and the figure is expected to go up to 80% in 2050. This will have far reaching economic and social consequences in many countries since in the present system it is mainly the current working age group who supports the welfare of the aged population in general. The potential support ratio, PSR (number of persons of age 15 to 64/one person above 65) is expected to go down to about 4 from the current level of about 9. This will have huge impact on present social security measures. Hence surely in 2050 this will be a burning issue.
Population growth in some developing nations exerts force on the society to emigrate in search of better life. Easy movement of labor force due to globalization and reduction in working age population in many developed countries generates a good demand for skilled workers from other countries to sustain their advance economies. Migration is considered as an effective tool for global development. In some parts of Europe and Asia, where fertility rate is below the replacement level, migration to such countries helps to compensate for the loss of population resulting in population growth or reduction in decline in population. Many developed countries are implementing planned immigration to compensate for the fall of birth rate below the replacement level. Today about 3% of the world’s population i.e. 175 million people are migrants and the figure is projected to go up to 250 million in 2050. More immigration is taking place from less developed countries to developed countries and at present about half of them is migrating to North America. Women contribute about half of the international migrant population. The issue of internal migration is a point to consider for regional population studies within the same country. Migration due to political, social, natural and religious disturbances constitutes a small percent compared to the economic migration. Migration does bring revenue to the originating country and helps their economies. So this continuing phenomenon of migration will still remain a major issue in 2050 with its both good and bad effects.
One of the major consequences of the population growth is urbanization. Urbanization is a direct derivation of the conscious decision of people to look for better opportunities in life in the cities. In 2007 more than 50% of the world’s population will live in cities. Today 4% of the world’s population lives in only 20 mega cities. Poverty is integrally linked with rapid urbanization due to unplanned expansion of cities leading to poor living condition and inadequate health services. About one third of the world’s urban population live in slums today. By 2030 about 1.7 billion people will live in slums of urban areas as projected. By 2050 the pressure on urban zones is expected to increase manifolds and will be another pressing issue.
The demographic transition explicates the transition from high birth and high death rates to low birth and low death rates. In developed nations the transition started in the eighteenth century whereas in developing world it started much later. The model uses birth and death rates per thousand as indices. For example presently birth rate and death rate of US is 14 and 9 respectively whereas the corresponding figures for Kenya is 32 and 14. Although it differs from analyst to analyst, for our understanding we can consider that it is divided into 4 stages. Stage I is when both birth rate and death rates are high. In this stage birth rate is high because more children are needed to ensure survival by working in farm etc. and more birth rate is due to lack health care facilities. In stage II where death rate goes down owing to better hygiene but birth rate remains almost same resulting in a rise in population. Many poor countries are in now stage II. In stage III, the birth rate reduces because of improved family planning, improved education, reduction in infant mortality rate, more industrialized lives etc. and the death rate remains low as well. Here also the population increases but the rate is much less compared to stage II. China, South Korea, Singapore etc. are now close to Stage III and approaching US and West Europe. Stage IV is where birth and death rates are almost equal leading to stagnant population like Switzerland. A possible Stage V is where the birth rate is lower than the death rate leading to net decrease in population like in Sweden. In some models stage II and IV are combined into one.
The method of population control in the developing countries is a central issue today. With the economic development of the nations the population growth rate declines as a natural consequence. Since such development process is slow in developing nations with huge populations, it may become necessary to accelerate the measures, which can reduce the population growth rate. Two different established models have recently been applied with reasonable success, one in China and the other in India. The model that China followed was the application of coercive policy of ‘one child per couple’. The general complaint against them was that China used force and economic sanctions against its own citizens to enforce the policy. On the other hand in a highly educated state of Kerala in India they took a collaborative approach that relied on conscious decisions by women and men given the varied choices, security and opportunity for open discussions. Although China has achieved average fertility rate of 2 in comparison to India’s average of 3.6 at present, it should be noted that Indian model of Kerala was applied in only one state with higher education level where the success rate is even better than China. Since India is a diversified country with average education level in general much lower than China, the Kerala model could not be extended throughout the country. However success of Kerala model is an eye opener for those who vouch for Chinese model of compulsory birth control. At least one adverse impact of Chinese model was its inability to reduce infant mortality to the level what could have achieved in Kerala. The infant mortality in Kerala is 16.5 per 1000 (17 for boys and 16 for girls) in comparison with the figure of 31 (28 for boys and 33 for girls) in case of China. This has helped Kerala to maintain a better ratio of male to female than China. Hence for developing nations Kerala model should be the choice, although more active intervention of Government like they did in China cannot also be ruled out in selected cases where situation demands quick results.
Growth in population is the major reason for the rampant extinction of the plant and animals, which is bringing instability in ecological balance by destroying bio-diversity. Urban migration is exerting tremendous pressure on water distribution and sanitation systems and forcing a major part of the population to live in unhealthy conditions. Reserve of sweet water is fast depleting in many developing countries due to its misuse and pressure of growing population. Vast forestland is being destroyed to accommodate additional people which in turn destroying wildlife and giving rise to greenhouse gasses and global warming. Although advanced countries are traditionally responsible for generating most of the green house gasses, developing nations are also coming up fast in the pursuit of the rapid development. It is projected that the developing countries will be generating more green house gasses by 2020 than developed nations. By the year 2050 adverse effect on eco system may increase by 3 to 4 times considering the population growth, continuing natural resource use and technological advancements. Unquestionably the issue of environmental degradation and protection will be a burning issue of 2050.
HIV/AIDS epidemic has an adverse effect on life expectancy and population growth. This is particularly true for developing and poorer countries of Africa. In fact life expectancy has declined from 62 of 1990 to 48 in Sub-Saharan Africa in last 10 years. It is projected that in this zone population growth will decelerate in next 15 years only because of HIV AIDS. Many other developing countries population affected by AIDS/HIV will continue to swell but the high fertility rate will compensate the loss of population. Even in 9 most affected countries in Africa, it is projected that population will rise from 115 million in 2000 to 196 million in 2050. Trend in medical advancement gives rise to the hope that HIV/AIDS will be cornered in foreseeable future to take this challenge out of the list of major issues in 2050.
The author summarizes the main points and opposition to main points as below:
1) In 2050 the world as a whole will see poorer standard of living on the average and more environmental degradation due to increase in population. Its opposition is that world community will become more responsible to protect the environment to the extent required and standard of living will improve because of continuing technological and medical advancements.
2) Whatever acceleration in poverty and hunger will be generated is due to the rise in population. The counter argument is that it is and will be more due to deliberate acts of richer nation’s policies of inequitable distribution of wealth to protect their richness.
3) The collaborative approach of India’s Kerala model for population control in developing countries is best suited from the social standpoint. The opposition to this view is to that the application of coercive polices by active legal and governmental intervention gives much quicker and assured results.
As concluding remark it can be said that if challenges related to the issue of population growth losses its top priority with every nation on the earth and all applicable international forums, the big question of the possibility of extinction of human race will be more relevant in 2050.
posted by ambhad at
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